Prova de 2016: Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) — questões com gabarito

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Economists Reduce Outlook for Brazil Inflation – Survey

By Rogerio Jelmayer – Dow Jones Business News 

Shutterstock phot

   Economists reduced their inflation estimate in Brazil for this year and next year, according to the central bank’s weekly survey of 100 economists published Monday. Economists now expect inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, to be 7.25% this year, compared with last week’s estimate of 7.34%, the survey showed.

     Economists estimate Brazil’s gross domestic product is likely to contract 3.14% this year, compared with an expected contraction of 3.15% in last week’s survey. Last year, Brazil’s economy contracted 3.80%, according to the country’s statistical bureau, IBGE. For 2017, economists reduced their view of GDP growth to 1.30% from 1.36%.

(www.nasdaq.com. 26.06.2016. Adaptado)

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Patience is needed for Brazil to come good again

Michael Hasenstab

Dr. Michael Hasenstab is executive

vice-president, portfolio manager

and chief investment officer of

Templeton Global Macro

    The Olympic Games in Rio drew global interest to Brazil, but the country and the rest of South America has been in sharp focus for investors all year. They have flocked to the region as part of a broader migration into emerging market debt, following record low valuations and the hunt for yield in a low interest rate environment. While investors have been presented with a rarely seen buying opportunity in emerging markets like South America, it is a mistake to regard these countries as a homogenous group.

    That leaves the challenge of working out which are the most attractive opportunities – some of our best known investments were not obvious choices.

    We have devised a formula to help us evaluate the fundamental strength of different emerging market countries. It scores a country’s current and projected strength on five factors: how well it has learnt the lessons from past crises; the quality of its policy mix; the structural reform being undertaken to boost productivity; the level of domestic demand; and its ability to resist external shocks. The aim is to pick nations that are fundamentally strong but, for one reason or another, are out of favour with investors. It can take time for the market to catch up to reality. But if you are a long-term investor – and we are certainly in that camp – you have the luxury of being able to wait.

    Brazil, for example, is known as a vulnerable market due to the commodities downturn, the ongoing corruption crisis and ensuing political turmoil, but our work suggests to us that it is poised for a potentially significant rebound in the long term. Its current score is low, but its projected future score tells a different story.

    We believe the country has learnt the lessons from the most recent crisis, which brought home the importance of having a sustainable fiscal policy. It has already adopted a flexible exchange rate, has strong foreign exchange reserves and has limited short-term debt. This is also reflected in the country’s improving resilience to external shocks, with a reliance on commodities, at 60 per cent of exports, being the largest remaining negative.

    It is perhaps no surprise, given Brazil’s deep recession and political instability, that there is much work required in terms of improving policy mix, making structural reforms and boosting domestic demand. However, there are signs things are being turned around, with monetary policy already being tightened aggressively to bring inflation expectations back under control, and the previously excessive levels of governmentsubsidised lending being cut. Once political stability returns, the government will be empowered to do even more.

    Work on structural reform should accelerate too, as Brazil’s middle class has made it clear it wants greater transparency and an economic policy framework that can both boost living standards and improve the environment for businesses.

(www.ft.com. 01.09.2016. Adaptado) 

Na crise, viramos fantoches na rede

       Quando um fato de grande repercussão social ocorre, o primeiro impacto é o congestionamento. Todos buscam se comunicar, gerando sobrecarga nas linhas de celular, tornando o acesso à internet móvel lento ou inexistente.

     Logo a seguir vem a onda de incerteza e desinformação. No anseio da busca por notícias rápidas, começam a circular na rede vários dados falsos ou imprecisos, que são replicados massivamente. Estudos mostram que as informações falsas circulam três vezes mais que as corretas, publicadas depois. O dano é enorme.

       A recomendação nesses casos é contraintuitiva: não replicar qualquer informação sem checá-la antes. Evitar o desejo de "participar" do acontecimento retuitando ou compartilhando informações vindas de fontes não confiáveis, por maior que seja o número de pessoas fazendo o mesmo. Nesses momentos de grande comoção e agitação, extremistas com agendas políticas deletérias aproveitam para fazer circular suas mensagens. Esse é um dos principais efeitos desejados pelo terrorismo contemporâneo: criar uma situação de grande agitação na internet e pegar carona nela para disseminar sua mensagem.

      Situações como essas transformam as pessoas em veículos. Viramos agentes de disseminação ampla de mensagens pré-fabricadas, produzidas intencionalmente por algumas poucas fontes que sabem exatamente o que estão fazendo.

      O objetivo não é o debate, mas mera ocupação de espaço. São teses e antíteses incapazes de produzir qualquer síntese. Não passam de narrativas pré-concebidas com o objetivo de ocupar espaço.

Ronaldo Lemos, Folha de S. Paulo, 28/03/2016. Adaptado. 

Na crise, viramos fantoches na rede

       Quando um fato de grande repercussão social ocorre, o primeiro impacto é o congestionamento. Todos buscam se comunicar, gerando sobrecarga nas linhas de celular, tornando o acesso à internet móvel lento ou inexistente.

     Logo a seguir vem a onda de incerteza e desinformação. No anseio da busca por notícias rápidas, começam a circular na rede vários dados falsos ou imprecisos, que são replicados massivamente. Estudos mostram que as informações falsas circulam três vezes mais que as corretas, publicadas depois. O dano é enorme.

       A recomendação nesses casos é contraintuitiva: não replicar qualquer informação sem checá-la antes. Evitar o desejo de "participar" do acontecimento retuitando ou compartilhando informações vindas de fontes não confiáveis, por maior que seja o número de pessoas fazendo o mesmo. Nesses momentos de grande comoção e agitação, extremistas com agendas políticas deletérias aproveitam para fazer circular suas mensagens. Esse é um dos principais efeitos desejados pelo terrorismo contemporâneo: criar uma situação de grande agitação na internet e pegar carona nela para disseminar sua mensagem.

      Situações como essas transformam as pessoas em veículos. Viramos agentes de disseminação ampla de mensagens pré-fabricadas, produzidas intencionalmente por algumas poucas fontes que sabem exatamente o que estão fazendo.

      O objetivo não é o debate, mas mera ocupação de espaço. São teses e antíteses incapazes de produzir qualquer síntese. Não passam de narrativas pré-concebidas com o objetivo de ocupar espaço.

Ronaldo Lemos, Folha de S. Paulo, 28/03/2016. Adaptado. 

Examine esta tirinha:

O efeito de humor que se obtém na tirinha decorre, principalmente,

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Patience is needed for Brazil to come good again

Michael Hasenstab

Dr. Michael Hasenstab is executive

vice-president, portfolio manager

and chief investment officer of

Templeton Global Macro

    The Olympic Games in Rio drew global interest to Brazil, but the country and the rest of South America has been in sharp focus for investors all year. They have flocked to the region as part of a broader migration into emerging market debt, following record low valuations and the hunt for yield in a low interest rate environment. While investors have been presented with a rarely seen buying opportunity in emerging markets like South America, it is a mistake to regard these countries as a homogenous group.

    That leaves the challenge of working out which are the most attractive opportunities – some of our best known investments were not obvious choices.

    We have devised a formula to help us evaluate the fundamental strength of different emerging market countries. It scores a country’s current and projected strength on five factors: how well it has learnt the lessons from past crises; the quality of its policy mix; the structural reform being undertaken to boost productivity; the level of domestic demand; and its ability to resist external shocks. The aim is to pick nations that are fundamentally strong but, for one reason or another, are out of favour with investors. It can take time for the market to catch up to reality. But if you are a long-term investor – and we are certainly in that camp – you have the luxury of being able to wait.

    Brazil, for example, is known as a vulnerable market due to the commodities downturn, the ongoing corruption crisis and ensuing political turmoil, but our work suggests to us that it is poised for a potentially significant rebound in the long term. Its current score is low, but its projected future score tells a different story.

    We believe the country has learnt the lessons from the most recent crisis, which brought home the importance of having a sustainable fiscal policy. It has already adopted a flexible exchange rate, has strong foreign exchange reserves and has limited short-term debt. This is also reflected in the country’s improving resilience to external shocks, with a reliance on commodities, at 60 per cent of exports, being the largest remaining negative.

    It is perhaps no surprise, given Brazil’s deep recession and political instability, that there is much work required in terms of improving policy mix, making structural reforms and boosting domestic demand. However, there are signs things are being turned around, with monetary policy already being tightened aggressively to bring inflation expectations back under control, and the previously excessive levels of governmentsubsidised lending being cut. Once political stability returns, the government will be empowered to do even more.

    Work on structural reform should accelerate too, as Brazil’s middle class has made it clear it wants greater transparency and an economic policy framework that can both boost living standards and improve the environment for businesses.

(www.ft.com. 01.09.2016. Adaptado) 

Leia o texto para responder a questão. 

Patience is needed for Brazil to come good again

Michael Hasenstab

Dr. Michael Hasenstab is executive

vice-president, portfolio manager

and chief investment officer of

Templeton Global Macro

    The Olympic Games in Rio drew global interest to Brazil, but the country and the rest of South America has been in sharp focus for investors all year. They have flocked to the region as part of a broader migration into emerging market debt, following record low valuations and the hunt for yield in a low interest rate environment. While investors have been presented with a rarely seen buying opportunity in emerging markets like South America, it is a mistake to regard these countries as a homogenous group.

    That leaves the challenge of working out which are the most attractive opportunities – some of our best known investments were not obvious choices.

    We have devised a formula to help us evaluate the fundamental strength of different emerging market countries. It scores a country’s current and projected strength on five factors: how well it has learnt the lessons from past crises; the quality of its policy mix; the structural reform being undertaken to boost productivity; the level of domestic demand; and its ability to resist external shocks. The aim is to pick nations that are fundamentally strong but, for one reason or another, are out of favour with investors. It can take time for the market to catch up to reality. But if you are a long-term investor – and we are certainly in that camp – you have the luxury of being able to wait.

    Brazil, for example, is known as a vulnerable market due to the commodities downturn, the ongoing corruption crisis and ensuing political turmoil, but our work suggests to us that it is poised for a potentially significant rebound in the long term. Its current score is low, but its projected future score tells a different story.

    We believe the country has learnt the lessons from the most recent crisis, which brought home the importance of having a sustainable fiscal policy. It has already adopted a flexible exchange rate, has strong foreign exchange reserves and has limited short-term debt. This is also reflected in the country’s improving resilience to external shocks, with a reliance on commodities, at 60 per cent of exports, being the largest remaining negative.

    It is perhaps no surprise, given Brazil’s deep recession and political instability, that there is much work required in terms of improving policy mix, making structural reforms and boosting domestic demand. However, there are signs things are being turned around, with monetary policy already being tightened aggressively to bring inflation expectations back under control, and the previously excessive levels of governmentsubsidised lending being cut. Once political stability returns, the government will be empowered to do even more.

    Work on structural reform should accelerate too, as Brazil’s middle class has made it clear it wants greater transparency and an economic policy framework that can both boost living standards and improve the environment for businesses.

(www.ft.com. 01.09.2016. Adaptado) 

Leia o texto para responder a questão. 

Patience is needed for Brazil to come good again

Michael Hasenstab

Dr. Michael Hasenstab is executive

vice-president, portfolio manager

and chief investment officer of

Templeton Global Macro

    The Olympic Games in Rio drew global interest to Brazil, but the country and the rest of South America has been in sharp focus for investors all year. They have flocked to the region as part of a broader migration into emerging market debt, following record low valuations and the hunt for yield in a low interest rate environment. While investors have been presented with a rarely seen buying opportunity in emerging markets like South America, it is a mistake to regard these countries as a homogenous group.

    That leaves the challenge of working out which are the most attractive opportunities – some of our best known investments were not obvious choices.

    We have devised a formula to help us evaluate the fundamental strength of different emerging market countries. It scores a country’s current and projected strength on five factors: how well it has learnt the lessons from past crises; the quality of its policy mix; the structural reform being undertaken to boost productivity; the level of domestic demand; and its ability to resist external shocks. The aim is to pick nations that are fundamentally strong but, for one reason or another, are out of favour with investors. It can take time for the market to catch up to reality. But if you are a long-term investor – and we are certainly in that camp – you have the luxury of being able to wait.

    Brazil, for example, is known as a vulnerable market due to the commodities downturn, the ongoing corruption crisis and ensuing political turmoil, but our work suggests to us that it is poised for a potentially significant rebound in the long term. Its current score is low, but its projected future score tells a different story.

    We believe the country has learnt the lessons from the most recent crisis, which brought home the importance of having a sustainable fiscal policy. It has already adopted a flexible exchange rate, has strong foreign exchange reserves and has limited short-term debt. This is also reflected in the country’s improving resilience to external shocks, with a reliance on commodities, at 60 per cent of exports, being the largest remaining negative.

    It is perhaps no surprise, given Brazil’s deep recession and political instability, that there is much work required in terms of improving policy mix, making structural reforms and boosting domestic demand. However, there are signs things are being turned around, with monetary policy already being tightened aggressively to bring inflation expectations back under control, and the previously excessive levels of governmentsubsidised lending being cut. Once political stability returns, the government will be empowered to do even more.

    Work on structural reform should accelerate too, as Brazil’s middle class has made it clear it wants greater transparency and an economic policy framework that can both boost living standards and improve the environment for businesses.

(www.ft.com. 01.09.2016. Adaptado) 

       Passaram-se assim algumas semanas: Leonardo, depois de acabadas todas as cerimônias, foi declarado agregado à casa de Tomás da Sé, e aí continuou convenientemente arranjado. Ninguém se admire da facilidade com que se faziam semelhantes coisas; no tempo em que se passavam os fatos que vamos narrando nada havia mais comum do que ter cada casa um, dois e às vezes mais agregados. 

      Em certas casas os agregados eram muito úteis, porque a família tirava grande proveito de seus serviços, e já tivemos ocasião de dar exemplo disso quando contamos a história do finado padrinho de Leonardo; outras vezes porém, e estas eram em maior número, o agregado, refinado vadio, era uma verdadeira parasita que se prendia à árvore familiar, que lhe participava da seiva sem ajudá-la a dar os frutos, e o que é mais ainda, chegava mesmo a dar cabo dela. E o caso é que, apesar de tudo, se na primeira hipótese o esmagavam com o peso de mil exigências, se lhe batiam a cada passo com os favores na cara, se o filho mais velho da casa, por exemplo, o tomava por seu divertimento, e à menor e mais justa queixa saltavam-lhe os pais em cima tomando o partido de seu filho, no segundo aturavam quanto desconcerto havia com paciência de mártir, o agregado tornava-se quase rei em casa, punha, dispunha, castigava os escravos, ralhava com os filhos, intervinha enfim nos mais particulares negócios.  

Manuel Antônio de Almeida, Memórias de um sargento de milícias.